US$1 Trillion in Cross-Border E-Commerce: What the 2026 Forecasts Actually Show

Ever bought something online from another country because, after hours searching for that one item, you found it on that one site from across the globe? Or maybe just because the prices are lower? Whatever your reason for cross-border shopping, you are not alone.

As a whole, cross-border e-commerce roughly corresponds to entire US online market revenues. That means it is a little larger than the world’s second-largest e-commerce market. And it is only going upward. By 2026, cross-border revenues are expected to surpass the US$1.2 trillion mark.

That trajectory raises an obvious question. With the US imposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports, killing the de minimis exemption, and applying political pressure on platforms like Temu and Shein, should we not be seeing a slowdown? The data says no. To understand why, it helps to separate the US trade debate from the actual structure of global cross-border commerce.

Shein’s and Temu’s US Headwinds Did Not Slow Overall Momentum

Cross-border e-commerce passed the US$1 trillion threshold in 2024, recovering from a brief post-Covid dip that had pushed global revenues down to US$967 billion in 2023. The correction lasted roughly one year. Since then, momentum has returned, and the forecasts are clear: the sector is heading toward US$1.2 trillion by 2026.

The headlines around Temu, Shein, and tariffs are real, but they concern only few markets. Neither platform retreated. Temu shifted to a local fulfilment model, moving bulk inventory into US warehouses to reduce per-shipment tariff exposure. Shein diversified its manufacturing base into Türkiye, Mexico, and Brazil, with Vietnam reportedly next.

Both platforms recorded double-digit global GMV growth in the first half of 2025, driven by expansion outside the US. The US now accounts for less than 30 percent of Shein's global GMV. For Temu, the figure is around 25%. This matters for how we read the broader cross-border numbers. These platforms are not primarily US-to-consumer businesses. They are global logistics and marketplace operations that happen to sell in the US among many other markets. When US policy tightened, they pivoted.

Shopee, MercadoLibre and European Platforms Drive the Sector’s Development

Temu and Shein attract most of the coverage on cross-border e-commerce, but the sector's expansion is not built on them alone.

In Southeast Asia and Latin America, Shopee and MercadoLibre have built the logistics infrastructure to serve demand across multiple countries at scale. MercadoLibre in particular has invested heavily in fulfilment networks across Latin America, making it the dominant e-commerce player in a region where cross-border purchasing has historically been difficult. Shopee has done the same across Southeast Asia, connecting buyers and sellers across markets that were previously hard to serve reliably.

In Europe, the cross-border picture looks different again. Players like Zalando, Carrefour, IKEA, and Allegro are not primarily known as cross-border specialists, but their reach across multiple European markets reflects exactly that: consumers buying across national borders from retailers with pan-European distribution. The appetite for products sourced beyond the home market is a structural feature of how European consumers shop online, not a recent development.

Outlook: Continuation of Rapid Growth Despite Regulatory Pressures

What the forecast reflects is that cross-border commerce has become structurally embedded in global retail. Cross-border e-commerce is how some of the world’s fastest-growing retailers accelerate and how a growing number of consumers choose to shop.

Ultimately, a market that is this structurally embedded does not stall because of one country's import rules.