Diminishing Relevance: Amazon Prime Day GMV in October 2025 Projected at US$10.3 Bn, 2-3% Growth Since 2024

With Amazon's October Prime Big Deals Day coming up soon, we took the time to track its development over the past few years. Initially established out of convenience during the pandemic, October Prime Day was first known as the “second Prime Day” and has since become a regular addition to the July event.

The October event is officially called “Prime Big Deal Days” and it lasts two days in 2025. As a shopping event that’s close to Thanksgiving Weekend, Cyber Week, Singles’ Day and the holiday season, Fall Prime Day falls in line with a series of discount events.

Since Amazon numbers are hard to come by and projections for the second Prime event in fall are rare, here are some of our own ECDB estimates.

Methodology: Aspects Considered in the Projection of GMV for Prime Day October

In general, Prime Big Deal Days is smaller than the July event. Established as an addition to Prime Day in July, the October event takes place right before other major sales events like Cyber Week and Singles’ Day. The October Prime Big Deal Days usually last half as long as the July event, which affects the GMV generated during these events.

How did we estimate these new values now? Primarily, we used Amazon’s monthly revenues as a reference point for the size of the October Prime event.

Taking various sources into account, there are very few analyst projections for Prime Big Deal Days in October. From 2022 to 2023, more ordinary years following the pandemic, the fall Prime event accounted for 13.16% of Amazon monthly revenues in October.

Using this estimate and considering sources discussing the size of Prime Big Deal Days in October 2024, we arrived at the respective numbers for 2024 and 2025.

Prime Big Deals Day in October 2025 to Generate Between US$10.2Bn and US$10.3Bn

Although Prime Big Deals Day in October 2024 was widely considered a success, concrete numbers are difficult to obtain. The October event fell below the numbers from July 2024 but generated more than the previous year.

Based on the previous share of monthly revenues, Prime Big Deal Days in October 2024 generated approximately US$10.0 billion in worldwide gross merchandise value (GMV). This represents an increase of about 8% from the previous year.

This year's Prime Big Deals Day is expected to set new records in terms of participation, orders, and subsequent GMV. In absolute terms, the projected GMV on those days is now at US$10.3 billion, which is at the higher end of estimates. A more conservative estimate results in an expected GMV of US$10.2 billion in 2025.

More Moderate Growth From the Previous October Event

Compared to the previous year’s event, growth rates for Prime Big Deals Day in October 2025 are more moderate, reflecting the overall growth rate of October 2025 compared to October 2024.

Amazon’s growth rate for the entire year is around 7%, while Adobe Analytics reported that the July event grew by an estimated 28%. Therefore, October's increase is estimated to be more modest. This is due to several factors.

First, Prime Big Deal Days' position right before other shopping events has traditionally made it less distinct, as consumers await many other discounting days during that time.

Second, the rising popularity of low-cost providers in eCommerce renders Amazon’s discounting event less special than it was just a few years ago. This year, Amazon launched its own discounting segment, Amazon Haul, in response to providers like Shein, Temu, and AliExpress.

Continued Relevance Despite Temporary Slowdown

Nonetheless, discounting events remain relevant, despite factors in everyday eCommerce that render them less special than they were just a few years ago. A successful business model means competitors will adapt and imitate it, as is happening with discounting events.

The multitude of events during the holiday season has traditionally meant that Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days are not undisputed. However, as Amazon remains the market leader, sufficient demand and growth trends mean consumers will take advantage of the discounts either way.