Revenue Effects of the New iPhone 17 Are Timed for the Holiday Season 2025 at Apple.com

Apple has once been named as one of the Big Five in Tech – next to Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft, abbreviated GAFAM. The thing about Apple is that it’s both a lifestyle and a luxury brand – you either get it or you don’t.

This is why, with each launch of the latest iPhone, the same reactions arise. There are consumers who can’t wait to get their hands on the new product and stand in line to do so, and there are those who couldn’t care less and actually find it ridiculous to buy a new product that they deem to be not much different from the previous year's model.

But, and here’s where the data comes in – a much larger majority finds itself somewhere in the middle. Our ECDB data finds a consistent pattern with each new product launch. Ordering a new iPhone during the holiday season.

Immediate Effects of Launches on Apple.com Are Minor

In 2024, three major new products were launched at Apple. Because it is the most anticipated, we focus on the new iPhone model. Immediate effects after the launch of the iPhone 16 in September 2024 are moderate.

We use the monthly share of annual revenue development to measure the effect of monthly GMV on the whole year. Because Apple’s fiscal year starts in October, the monthly revenues are tracked from October through September to align with its reporting calendar.

In that logic, September 2024 contributed US$4.3 billion, or 8.8% to the whole fiscal year 2024. This rate is better than most months, but doesn’t belong to the strongest rates, which follow later. This means that immediate effects of the iPhone launch on apple.com are there, but limited.

Where usually apple.com GMV shares are somewhat below Consumer Electronics GMV during the beginning of the year, September leads Apple to surpass Consumer Electronics by almost one percentage point. This pattern continues throughout the following months.

A Three-Month Peak Period After the iPhone 16 Launch

But here’s the twist: the effects of the launches are most evident in the 3-month period following right after, when monthly revenues are highest. For the iPhone 16, the online effect was apparent throughout October to December 2024. The launch therefore coincides with the holiday season and shopping events.

The exact revenue shares for this high period are 10.6% in October 2024, 10.7% in November 2024 and 10.6% in December 2024. These rates correspond to revenue of around US$5.3 billion.

It goes to show that the holiday season, in Apple’s case the beginning of the fiscal year in October, is more important to revenues than is usual in the whole market. Another small increase is visible in March of the following year, when the new MacBook Air was launched. Its effects are not as apparent though.

Three Primary Reasons Behind the 3-Month Peak Period

Several dynamics come together to account for the 3-month peak period after a new iPhone launch. We’ll discuss three of the most significant ones. The first one regards the timing, which coincides with shopping events like Black Friday, Cyber Week, Thanksgiving Weekend and the holiday season in the months right after.

Second, improved consumer finances around the turn of the year play a role. Holiday bonuses, annual payouts, or even gift cards and money gifts received during the holidays create a natural window for higher-value purchases. A new iPhone launch also means that the previous model receives a discount, which is why sales for the former model will go up during that period as well.

A reason for the slight delay can be found in the nature of the online channel. Buying a brand-new Apple product, particularly the new iPhone, comes with the immediate, physical unboxing experience. Consumers who want the iPhone as soon as possible are not going to wait a few days for package delivery. Instead, going to the store, picking up the box, and unpacking it provides a different luxury feel that the online channel cannot offer in the same degree.

What This Means for the iPhone 17: Peak Between October and December 2025

What does this mean for the iPhone 17? The latest Apple product was released in September 2025. Considering the aforementioned aspects, the effects are expected to be most visible during the end-of-year season in 2025. Our ECDB projections show monthly revenue shares approaching 11.0%. This would translate into approx. US$5.3 billion to US$5.4 billion in monthly online revenue.

The strategy of launching a new model before each holiday season evidently has its effects. Taking advantage of hype curves, price developments and deciding whether novelty or affordability is valued more, ensures consistent growth if consumers decide to participate.