Türkiye and Bulgaria Set the Pace for European E-Commerce Growth

When discussing Europe's e-commerce landscape, attention often gravitates toward established markets such as the UK, Germany, or France. Yet the most exciting growth story is currently unfolding elsewhere. Eastern and Southeastern Europe are emerging as the continent's fastest-growing digital commerce regions as they offer significant opportunities for e-commerce.

Growth Ranking: Top CAGRs in Türkiye and Bulgaria

According to our latest data, Türkiye and Bulgaria are expected to lead Europe in e-commerce revenue growth between 2025 and 2029, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 12.9% and 12.5%, respectively.

But the story extends far beyond these two markets. Countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Poland, Malta and Portugal demonstrate substantial catch-up potential as online retail adoption accelerates and digital infrastructure improves.

Factors for Growth: Digital Adoption, Infrastructure, Fast Turnover

The growth momentum in these markets is being driven by several structural factors.

• Considerable room for e-commerce penetration to increase: The addressable customer base expands continuously

• Strengthening marketplace ecosystems: Encompassing both regional players and international players.

• Increasing digital payment adoption and improving infrastructure: Reduces friction in payment and delivery.

• Rise of mobile commerce: Smartphone-first consumers are using apps and mobile platforms as their primary shopping channel.

• Fast turnover of goods through quick commerce & Co.: Making e-commerce more attractive than ever before.

All of these factors contribute to the fast rise of the markets, but their conditions are different. Türkiye is a large and populous country with a dynamic retail environment, while Bulgaria is smaller and more developing.

Outlook: Beyond Market Size

While mature Western European economies remain essential for size, some of the most attractive growth prospects over the next several years will come from markets that are still in the process of unlocking their full e-commerce potential.

For businesses seeking expansion opportunities, Eastern and Southeastern Europe deserve a place at the top of the agenda.