TikTok Shop Is on Track to Nearly Double Its GMV in a Single Year

TikTok Shop is on the rise. That is what our projections for 2026 show. Boasting a year-on-year growth rate of 86%, the social commerce retailer is set to reach €106.0 billion in GMV this year.

Among all of this, Europe still holds a small share of the total. Only 7% of total GMV come from the continent. TikTok Shop's most important single market remains the United States, followed by Indonesia. Here is how TikTok performs across the board.

TikTok Shop Is Still in Its Expansion Phase

TikTok Shop launched in 2021 across Southeast Asia and the United Kingdom. First-year GMV came in under €1 billion. Four years later the platform reached €57.1 billion, with €106.0 billion projected for 2026.

A growth rate of 86% on that base is already enormous. Usually, platforms of this size tend to decelerate. The fact that TikTok Shop is continuously launching in new markets helps it reach high growth even at a large GMV underneath it.

Just this year, TikTok Shop launched in the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Poland. Despite the fact that the platform now operates in a substantial core of continental Europe, Europe's GMV share is only at 7% in 2025. TikTok's most important markets are based elsewhere.

The United States and Indonesia Anchor the Platform From Opposite Ends

The single most important market is the United States, at 22.2% of GMV in 2025. Indonesia follows closely at 20.2%. All in all, Southeast Asia accounts for 69% of TikTok Shop's GMV in 2025. That is both for chronological and structural reasons; TikTok launched in Southeast Asia first, and was met with a young, mobile-first shopper base whose market structure was devoid of any major platform taking up most space in the competitive field. Nowadays, TikTok is the second-largest online retailer in the region, behind Shopee and ahead of Lazada.

The two leading markets, US and Indonesia, could not be more different from each other. Social selling was already normal in Indonesia before TikTok Shop arrived, through livestream formats on Shopee and informal selling on Instagram and WhatsApp. Average order values stay low. Order volume carries the total.

The United States works on the opposite arithmetic. Disposable income is high, baskets are larger, and the creator and affiliate economy was already built out before TikTok Shop opened its checkout. American consumers thrive on TikTok discovery, which the social platform delivers through an app that users already spend hours in.

Attention Came First, Transactions Followed

TikTok already had the audience through its short-video app. Monetizing that attention has proven widely successful, and the mechanics explain why the economics hold up. New shoppers arrive without a traffic acquisition cost attached. Every market TikTok already operates in as a media platform is a market where the commerce layer starts with a built-in user base.

The same holds up for European markets. As a region that was slow to adopt shoppable video and livestream shopping, TikTok slowly establishes this habit through the fact that users browse the app for entertainment purposes anyways. New formats like eBay Live follow and show how the trend is picking up pace, without clear certainty that it is going to become widely successful though.

Wrap-Up: Continental Europe as the Growth Engine

Europe resisted livestream commerce for structural reasons. Shoppers route purchases through established domestic players. Payment habits, invoicing conventions, and return expectations set a higher trust bar than Southeast Asian markets did. Language fragmentation makes creator networks expensive to build country by country.

Still, much of the projected growth this year comes from exactly the addition of new European markets to TikTok's regions of operation. If it holds, TikTok Shop will have established a format the region resisted for years. Its exisiting user base provides a clear competitive advantage, as the attention was already there; it just needed to be monetized.